00100	EVALUATION 
00200	
00300		The primary aim in constructing this model  was  to  explore,
00400	clarify, develop, test and improve -all with a model- a theory having
00500	explanatory value. To satisfy this aim, the model must meet norms  of
00600	internal    consistency   (systemicity)   and   norms   of   external
00700	correspondence with observation (testability). A secondary aim  would
00800	involve pragmatic norms of application.  These aims are not unrelated
00900	but the primary one is more  fundamental  since  useful  applications
01000	require some degree of consistency and correspondence to observation.
01100		As emphasized in Chapter  2,  a  model  in  the  form  of  an
01200	algorithm  consists  of  a structure of functions or procedures whose
01300	inner workings are  sufficient  to  reproduce  the  outward  symbolic
01400	behavior  under  consideration.   The theory embodied in the model is
01500	revealed  in  the  set of statements which illuminate the connections
01600	betweeen input and output, i.e.  which  describe  how  the  structure
01700	reacts under various circumstances.
01800		What constitutes a satisfactory explanation has been  treated
01900	in  2.1.     The "fit" or correspondence with facts of observation as
02000	indicated by measurements and empirical tests indicating  the  degree
02100	of  faithfulness  of  the  reproduction  were described in Chapter 6.
02200	Given that the model has met the above criteria, what does it  as  an
02300	artefact tell us about naturally-occurring paranoid processes?
02400		First, the model attempts to revisualize  or  reconceptualize
02500	the  phenomena  of  paranoid  disorders. They are not to be viewed as
02600	first-order "diseases" but as a mode of processing symbols  secondary
02700	to  a  primary  disturbance.  The  patterns  of  linguistic  paranoid
02800	behavior observed in an  interview  are  produced  by  an  underlying
02900	organized  structure  and  not by a variety of random and unconnected
03000	mechanical failures. Second, the underlying structure consists of  an
03100	algorithm,   an   organization  of  symbol-processing  strategies  or
03200	procedures. Third, the model as an analogy indicates that  to  change
03300	this structure, its procedures must be accessible to reprogramming in
03400	the higher-level language of the algorithm. Finally, as a  conceptual
03500	reform,  the  model  suggests  that  other types of psychopathologies
03600	might be viewed from a symbol-processing standpoint.
03700		Decision procedures for consensus acceptability  of  a  model
03800	sometimes  depend  not  so  much  on  truth,  an elusive state, as on
03900	whether a majority of the  relevant  expert  community  believes  the
04000	theory  or  model to approximate truth to some unknown and unknowable
04100	degree and to be better than available plausible  alternatives,  that
04200	is,  to  be  the  best  we  can  do for the time being. Validation is
04300	ultimately a private experience of the individual. Empirical truth or
04400	falsity  cannot  be  proven with certainty, but their presence can be
04500	assayed by some sort of critical assesment and deliberation.  We  can
04600	forgive  models  for  being only nearly true.   A theory or model may
04700	bring cognitive or pragmatic comfort, not  because  it  is  TRUE  but
04800	because it represents an improvement over its
04900	contending rivals.
05000		Cognitive comfort is a  type  of  intellectual  satisfaction.
05100	Pragmatic  comfort  accrues from applications to problems in order to
05200	make things work the way humans want  them  to  work  efficiently  in
05300	practical  contexts  of  technological  action. For the pragmatist, a
05400	model is a means to an end;  for  the  theoretician,  an  explanatory
05500	model  is  an end in itself. It is hoped that this paranoid model can
05600	contribute to understanding one of the mysteries  of  human  conduct,
05700	the  paranoid mode. There remains the enigma of the paranoid "streak"
05800	which renders whole nations  susceptible  to  idelogical  convictions
05900	in which Elsewhereans are believed to be malevolent oppressors.
06000		It  is  a  truism  of  methodology  texbooks that an infinite
06100	number of theories or  models  can  account  for  the  same  data  of
06200	observation.        Without   questioning  whether  "infinite"  means
06300	indefinitely large or just more than one, we  must  allow  for  rival
06400	explanations.  For a rival to be a live and tenable option, it should
06500	be truly alternative (i.e., not just a family version saying the same
06600	thing  in  a  different way), and be confirmable or disconfirmable by
06700	tests.
06800		Although I  hold  that  faithful  reproduction,  fidelity  as
06900	measured  by  indistinguishability  along  specific  dimensions, is a
07000	proper and major test for the adequacy of simulation models, it would
07100	be a bonus if our model could satisfy the function of making possible
07200	new  knowledge  through  prediction.    The  term  "prediction" has a
07300	spectrum  of  meanings  ranging  from  forecasts  to   prognoses   to
07400	prophecies  to precise point-predictions in time.  To predict (and to
07500	postdict) from a theory or model is to derive  and  announce  a  fact
07600	prior  to  knowledge  of  its  actual  occurence.   However one needs
07700	knowledge of the kind of fact expected, the conditions which  produce
07800	it  and  the circumstances under which it will occur. The interest in
07900	prediction may stem from a desire (1)  to  confirm  or  disconfirm  a
08000	theory or model or (2) to obtain useful information about the future,
08100	as in weather forecasting.  Celestial mechanics provides the ideal of
08200	accurate  long-range  predictions.   But  even  astronomers, with the
08300	advantage of studying isolated and  repetitive  systems,  have  their
08400	troubles.   In  1759  Halley's  comet  arrived  four  days later than
08500	predicted.   In spite of our advanced 20th century knowledge, in 1962
08600	this  pesky comet arrived eight days later than predicted, making the
08700	prediction twice as bad. (In fairness we must make allowances for the
08800	fact that great masses, distances and velocities are involved).
08900		Predictions of individual human behavior are severely limited
09000	by  our  restrictions  of  knowledge.    For  example, (1) sufficient
09100	knowledge of initial conditions may require that we  know  the  whole
09200	past  history of an individual (something not yet achieved for even a
09300	single person), (2) individuals do not remain isolated over the  time
09400	stretch of the prediction; they interact with other individuals of an
09500	unknown nature, (3)  since  life  is  a  fortuitous  flux  of  chance
09600	intersections of independent causal chains, one would also have to be
09700	able to forsee events of the physical environment  and  its  changes,
09800	(4)  the  process  of  observation  needed  to obtain information for
09900	predictions may have non-negligible and unforseeable effects  on  the
10000	observed.
10100		In  one  sense  our  paranoid  model  makes  moment-to-moment
10200	predictions and asserts  new  counterfactuals  about  behavior  in  a
10300	psychiatric  interview.  That  is,  if  an  interviewer  says X under
10400	conditions Y, then the model's  response  will  be  characterized  by
10500	z1...zn,   and   the   same   holds   true   for  paranoid  patients.
10600	Counterfactual  prediction  means  that  on  the  basis  of  observed
10700	behavior  we  are  willing,with  an  inductive  risk,  to  assume the
10800	presence of unobserved behavior potentials in a model's or  patient's
10900	repertoire of capabilities.
11000		Predicting  new  kinds  of  events  or properties, instead of
11100	kinds we are already familiar with, would represent a genuine  bonus,
11200	indicating  the  model is more than ad hoc and has excess content. It
11300	would give both clinicians and investigators something to  look  for.
11400	This  novelty  could  arise  in  two  ways.    First, the model might
11500	demonstrate a property  of  the  paranoid  mode  hitherto  unobserved
11600	clinically.      In  principle  this could come about because the I-O
11700	behavior of  the  model  is  a  consequence  of  a  large  number  of
11800	interacting  hypotheses  and  assumptions chosen initially to explain
11900	frequently observed phenomena.    When the elements of such a complex
12000	conjunction  interact  with  highly  variable  inputs  they  generate
12100	consequences in addition to those  they  were  designed  to  explain.
12200	Whether  any  of these consequences are significant or characteristic
12300	of the paranoid mode remains a subject for future study.
12400		It  is  also  possible that a new property of paranoia may be
12500	discovered in the clinical  interview,  although  perhaps  everything
12600	that  can  be  said about paranoid dialogues has been said.  If a new
12700	property were found, a search  for  it  might  be  conducted  in  the
12800	model's  behavior. If successful, this again would add to the model's
12900	acceptability.
13000		A second novelty might arise in the behavior of the model  in
13100	some  new situation.   Since it is designed to simulate communicative
13200	behavior in an interview situation, the `new' circumstance would have
13300	to involve some new type of linguistic interaction to which the model
13400	is capable of responding. From its behavior one  might  then  predict
13500	how paranoid patients would behave under similar circumstances.   The
13600	requisite empirical tests and  measures  would  show  the  degree  of
13700	correspondence between patient and model behaviors.
13800		This possibility is of importance in considering emancipatory
13900	therapies for patients  entangled  in  the quandaries of the paranoid
14000	mode.    Since the model operates at a symbol processing level  using
14100	natural  language,  it  is      this  level  at  which linguistic and
14200	conceptual skills of clinicians can be  applied.   Language-based  or
14300	semantic  techniques  do not seem very effective in the psychoses but
14400	they are useful in states of lesser severity. A  wide  range  of  new
14500	semantic  techniques, including extremes, could be tried first on the
14600	model without subjecting patients to blind experimentation.
14700		While we have used the model principally to explore a  theory
14800	and  to study psychiatric judgements, its potential use as a training
14900	device has  not  escaped  our  reflections.    Medical  students  and
15000	psychiatric  residents  need  "disposable  patients"  to  practice on
15100	without jeopardy (to either). A version of  the  paranoid  model  can
15200	display  the  changes  in  its  inner  states  during  an  interview.
15300	Whether  the  optimal  goal  of  interviewing   (gathering   relevant
15400	information  without  upsetting  the patient), has been achieved, can
15500	thus be estimated.     A  beginning  interviewer  could  practice  in
15600	private or with a supervisor present. Many interviewers have reported
15700	that the model has a definite effect on them.    The student can  get
15800	the  feel  of  the  paranoid mode long before he interviews an actual
15900	patient.     The effect  of  various  interviewing  styles  might  be
16000	studied and compared.
16100	
16200		Although this simulation of  paranoia  covers  a  variety  of
16300	facts,  it  is  circumscribed  in  what  it  attempts to explain. The
16400	proffered explanation is local and restricted in that it accounts for
16500	only  one  type  of  symbol-processing mode.  Past attempts at grand-
16600	scale explanations of all  mental  processes  in  all  contexts  have
16700	failed.  A  preferable  strategy, successful in other sciences, is to
16800	build one circumscribed and tested theory or model at a time so  that
16900	the  field  can  gradually  move  forward a step at a time, each step
17000	gaining consensus before attempting the next.